It is one of the great temptations of modern geopolitics: to stare at the latest crisis while a dozen others quietly simmer in the background.
Right now, Venezuela dominates headlines for many in the West - and I understand why.
Energy security, regional instability, great‑power manoeuvring and ideological fault lines all collide there. But while eyes are drawn westward, other flashpoints remain very much on the boil, and among the most dangerous of them is South Asia.
Kashmir did not cool simply because attention drifted.
A Flashpoint That Never Went Away
When this article was first written in late 2024, the argument was straightforward:
Kashmir is not merely a territorial dispute between India and Pakistan, but a pressure point where history, religion, water security, nuclear deterrence and regional alliances converge.
That assessment has not weakened. It has hardened.
The difference now is not whether Kashmir matters, but how many additional stresses are acting on it at the same time.
India and Pakistan remain locked in a hostile standoff - outwardly restrained, inwardly on constant high heat. The Line of Control remains less a border than a fault line, one where miscalculation, provocation or political necessity could still trigger rapid escalation.
Border skirmishes discussed over a year ago exploded in October 2025 into the most serious clashes since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover of Afghanistan. Pakistani airstrikes targeted TTP hideouts deep inside Afghanistan, including in Kabul and Kandahar.
The Afghan Taliban retaliated with ground attacks on Pakistani posts. Temporary ceasefires were brokered through intermediaries such as Qatar and Turkey, but tensions persist into 2026, with ongoing TTP attacks inside Pakistan and continued mutual accusations.
(The TTP, or Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, also known as the Pakistani Taliban, is a separate militant group from the Afghan Taliban. Formed in 2007, it seeks to overthrow the Pakistani government and impose a strict interpretation of Islamic law, while using Afghan territory as a safe haven, a charge the Afghan Taliban denies.)
This situation has diverted Pakistani resources and attention, creating the exact situation I warned about.
This got even worse on 22nd of April 2025, when a terrorist attack in Pahalgam killed 26 civilians, most of them Hindu tourists. India blamed Pakistan‑backed groups and launched Operation Sindoor - strikes on terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan‑occupied Kashmir. What followed was a brief but pretty frightening four‑day conflict in May 2025, involving aerial engagements, missile and drone warfare - the most serious confrontation since 2019.
A ceasefire was reached on May 10, but relations remain frozen. India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, halting data sharing and implementing short‑term measures to restrict water flows from key infrastructure such as the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab. As of early 2026, the treaty remains suspended.
A Brief Historical Recap
To understand why Kashmir remains so volatile, history cannot be ignored.
Since 1947, Kashmir has been claimed in full by both India and Pakistan, resulting in three wars.
Following Partition, the state of Jammu and Kashmir faced a choice: join India, join Pakistan, or remain independent. Its Hindu ruler, Maharaja Hari Singh, initially opted for independence. That changed when tribal militias from Pakistan invaded the region. Seeking military assistance, the Maharaja signed the Instrument of Accession with India.
Indian and Pakistani forces clashed until a United Nations‑brokered ceasefire in 1948 established what later became known as the Line of Control, dividing the territory into Indian‑administered and Pakistan‑administered areas. The dispute itself remained unresolved.
In 1965, Pakistan launched Operation Gibraltar, seeking to exploit perceived unrest among Kashmir’s Moslem population. The plan failed, escalation followed, and a full‑scale war ensued. The conflict ended with the Tashkent Agreement, restoring pre‑war positions but resolving nothing.
In 1999, following the Lahore Declaration intended to improve relations, Pakistani forces infiltrated the Kargil sector under the guise of militants and occupied strategic heights. India’s counteroffensive, combined with international pressure, forced a Pakistani withdrawal. Once again, the episode underscored just how quickly Kashmir could ignite.
Today, the Line of Control still divides Indian‑ and Pakistani‑administered Kashmir. China controls Aksai Chin and holds territory ceded by Pakistan - adding a further strategic layer to an already complex dispute.
Water, Geography and the Silent Stakes
One of the least discussed yet most critical elements of the Kashmir dispute is water.
The rivers that rise in the region sustain hundreds of millions of people downstream. Control, access and even the perception of control over water infrastructure quietly shape strategic calculations on both sides.
In an era of population growth and food insecurity, water disputes are no longer secondary concerns - they are catalysts.
Kashmir sits at the intersection of geography and survival. Rivers such as the Indus and Jhelum remain vital to Pakistan’s agriculture and energy needs, magnifying every political decision taken upstream.
Pakistan: Pressures on Every Side
Internally, it faces economic fragility, political uncertainty and social unrest. Yet Kashmir remains central to its strategic thinking, but it is no longer the only fire demanding attention.
Along its western frontier, relations with Afghanistan have deteriorated into repeated confrontations, border clashes and mutual accusations. This is not a theoretical dispute. It carries real consequences in troop deployments, trade disruption and domestic security.
A state managing so many pressures becomes more brittle, not more stable.
In such conditions, Kashmir does not fade into the background - it becomes more dangerous.
Afghanistan: The Unsettled Rear
Afghanistan’s instability is often treated as a background constant, something the world has grown accustomed to ignoring. It almost has a
somebody else's problem " field built around it. But that complacency is a mistake.
An unsettled Afghanistan complicates Pakistan’s western border and draws resources away from its eastern focus. It also creates space for others to pop in - who thrive on chaos and grievance.
This matters for Kashmir because the conflict has never been purely local. External influences thrive where governance is weakest.
India’s Strategic Shift
New Delhi sees Kashmir not as a negotiable dispute, but as a settled question of sovereignty and internal security.
This does not mean India seeks war.
When both sides believe resolve must be demonstrated rather than just stated, the chances of escalation rise - even if neither side desires a full‑scale conflict.
Hovering over it all is the nuclear reality: not a guarantee of peace, but a reminder that any serious step in the wrong direction would carry consequences far beyond the region.
Why Distraction Is Dangerous
The lesson from Venezuela is not that it matters more than Kashmir.
The lesson is that global instability no longer arrives one crisis at a time.
Great powers are stretched. Institutions are weakened. Media cycles move quickly, but strategic realities move slowly - and relentlessly. Regions that appear quiet are often not stable; they are simply waiting for the spark that returns them to centre stage.
Kashmir is one such place.
Ignoring it does not reduce its volatility. It just ensures that when it erupts again, the world will once more claim it was caught by surprise.
Keeping Our Eye on the Ball
History shows that wars rarely begin where attention is focused most intensely. They begin where tensions have been allowed to accumulate in the shadows.
Kashmir remains a silent unspoken problem. Add to that a weakened Pakistan, an unstable Afghanistan and a more stroppy India, and the picture becomes unmistakably clear.
This is not yesterday’s problem.
It is a live one - and it deserves to remain firmly in view, even as other crises compete for attention.
Because while the world watches Venezuela, Kashmir is still on the boil.
This article was first published in late 2024, when Kashmir was already showing signs of renewed volatility. Events since then - including escalating Pakistan-Afghanistan clashes, a serious India-Pakistan confrontation in 2025, and the suspension of long-standing water agreements - have only reinforced its central warning. As global attention shifts to other crises, this updated edition is republished to remind readers that some of the world’s most dangerous flashpoints do not cool simply because they fall out of the headlines.
History rarely punishes those who watch the wrong crisis - it punishes those who ignore the right one.
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