No reform, no peace for Donbass Kiev and the breakaway republics have repeatedly accused each other of violating the Minsk agreements, but, crucially, the promised reforms have never materialized. The Ukrainian government continued branding the DPR and LPR officials as “terrorists” and ruled out any direct negotiations, while new rounds of talks in the same international ‘Normandy Format’ failed to produce tangible results.
In February 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was “not satisfied with all provisions” of the agreements, claiming Kiev and Moscow saw their implementation differently. Russia has accused Kiev of abandoning the deal altogether, as cross-border shelling continued. More than 13,000 people were killed in the conflict between 2014 and 2020, according to the UN.
Road to escalation in Donbass
In late 2021 and early 2022, allegations of an imminent full-scale attack intensified both in Kiev and in the breakaway republics. Ukraine’s Western allies accused Moscow of planning an unprovoked military operation that would see large swaths of the country occupied and its capital taken, while the Kremlin continued to dismiss the allegations and, in turn, accused Kiev of planning an attack in the Donbass.
Last week, officials in Donetsk and Lugansk accused the Ukrainian army of launching heavy artillery across the border. The DPR and LPR responded with a large-scale evacuation of civilians to Russia and declared the mobilization of all military-age men. Ukraine denied it was planning a full-blown assault on the breakaway republics, blaming the DPR and LPR for the ceasefire violations.
Russia recognizes Donbass republics
The leaders of the DPR and LPR appealed to the Kremlin on Monday to recognize the two republics as independent states. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the recognition on the same day, citing what he said was Ukraine’s inability to implement the Minsk agreements and the continued attacks on Donetsk and Lugansk. Putin also signed friendship treaties with the DPR and LPR, which included the provision of military assistance.
Moscow launches ‘military operation’ in Ukraine On Wednesday, the Donbass republics asked Russia to help them repel the “aggression” of Ukrainian troops. Putin responded by announcing a military operation against Ukraine early on Thursday morning. He claimed he wanted to protect the people of the Donbass from what he described as “genocide” and sought the “demilitarization and denazification” of Ukraine. The president did not reveal the scope of the operation nor how long it would last.
The Russian Defense Ministry said in a short statement that it was carrying out “precision strikes” against Ukrainian military targets, without specifying their location. Ukrainian officials and media outlets have reported strikes in cities across the country, as well as alleged incursions by Russian soldiers and armored vehicles from several directions. Moscow has neither confirmed nor denied that its ground troops have crossed Ukraine’s borders.
Kiev has declared martial law and closed its airspace for civilian flights. Zelensky said Kiev was cutting diplomatic ties with Moscow.
What comes next?
On Thursday, Putin said Russian troops “don’t plan on occupying Ukrainian territories.” However, speaking to reporters on Tuesday, he said Moscow has recognized the whole of Ukraine’s former Donetsk and Lugansk administrative regions as the DPR and LPR. Both regions have been partly controlled by Ukrainian forces since 2015. After announcing the mobilization in Ukraine, Yuri Maximov, a senior military official in Kiev, said 46,000 reservists would join the Ukrainian army, police, and border guards.
Meanwhile, President Zelensky has been pleading with his Western allies to impose sweeping sanctions on Russia. The EU, the UK, and the US were due to announce their package of anti-Russian measures later on Thursday. The US-led NATO bloc has said it would not be deploying any troops to Ukraine.
After an emergency meeting on Thursday, it said it would instead “take additional steps to further strengthen deterrence and defense across the alliance.” Moscow had earlier cited NATO’s eastward expansion and Ukraine’s potential membership as a key reason for launching its military operation.
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